Chart of the Day: The Coming Population Bomb Implosion

The world’s population is more than three times larger than it was in the mid-twentieth century. The global human population reached 8.0 billion in mid-November 2022 from an estimated 2.5 billion people in 1950, adding 1 billion people since 2010 and 2 billion since 1998.

The world’s population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050, and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s. However, the UN forecasts that rapid growth will slow down – and may even stop entirely by 2100 – because of falling fertility rates.

The Visual Capitalist, lays out a nice infographic below that shows the decline in fertility rates.

In 2020, the world’s fertility rate stood at 2.3, slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which allows for one generation to replace itself. This is down more than two times from 4.7 in 1960. But the world’s average hides the vast disparities between the fertility rate of countries. We dive into the differences below.

Which Country has the Highest Fertility Rate?

According to the UN, nearly two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below the critical 2.1 thresholds. In the table below, countries are ranked from the highest to lowest average births per woman in 2020.

Rank	Country Name	1960	1975	1990	2005	2020
1	Niger	7.53	7.54	7.81	7.62	6.89
2	Somalia	7.25	7.03	7.44	7.48	6.42
3	Chad	6.25	6.88	7.22	7.13	6.35
4	Dem. Rep. of Congo	6.08	6.42	6.70	6.60	6.21
5	Mali	7.00	7.24	7.25	6.72	6.04
6	Central African Republic	5.81	5.89	6.05	5.85	5.99
7	Angola	6.71	7.49	7.27	6.46	5.37
8	Nigeria	6.36	6.77	6.46	6.07	5.31
9	Burundi	7.00	7.24	7.37	6.71	5.18
10	Benin	6.28	6.85	6.73	5.68	5.05
11	Burkina Faso	6.25	6.91	7.01	6.18	4.87
12	Tanzania	6.73	7.00	6.20	5.61	4.80
13	Gambia	6.25	6.41	6.22	5.72	4.78
14	Afghanistan	7.28	7.54	7.57	6.91	4.75
15	Mozambique	6.32	6.69	6.22	5.61	4.71
16	Uganda	6.94	7.23	7.04	6.57	4.69
17	Cameroon	5.65	6.39	6.39	5.41	4.54
18	South Sudan	6.72	6.92	7.99	6.17	4.54
19	Sudan	6.65	6.93	6.17	5.04	4.54
20	Guinea	6.11	6.37	6.63	5.70	4.49
21	Cote d’Ivoire	7.69	7.91	6.73	5.46	4.47
22	Mauritania	6.35	6.68	6.06	5.19	4.46
23	Senegal	7.00	7.25	6.40	5.19	4.45
24	Zambia	7.12	7.39	6.53	5.71	4.38
25	Equatorial Guinea	5.65	5.79	5.99	5.56	4.35
26	Togo	6.72	7.15	6.13	5.07	4.32
27	Ethiopia	6.88	7.14	7.24	5.97	4.24
28	Rep. of Congo	6.09	6.36	5.21	4.66	4.23
29	Liberia	6.39	6.74	6.37	5.52	4.17
30	Guinea-Bissau	5.92	6.15	6.51	5.45	4.09
31	Sierra Leone	6.18	6.55	6.57	5.81	4.08
32	Comoros	6.79	7.12	6.50	5.03	4.05
33	Solomon Islands	6.97	7.07	5.66	4.48	4.04
34	Samoa	7.65	6.68	4.93	4.37	4.00
35	Malawi	7.03	7.40	6.81	5.91	4.00
36	Eritrea	6.48	6.59	6.34	4.93	3.93
37	Madagascar	7.30	7.10	6.16	5.10	3.92
38	Sao Tome & Principe	6.24	6.53	5.83	4.96	3.89
39	Yemen	7.94	8.40	8.61	5.58	3.89
40	Rwanda	8.19	8.22	6.87	5.44	3.87
41	Vanuatu	6.86	6.09	5.03	4.16	3.78
42	Ghana	6.85	6.77	5.71	4.54	3.62
43	West Bank & Gaza	NA	NA	6.78	4.84	3.57
44	Pakistan	6.80	6.81	6.36	4.64	3.56
45	Iraq	5.30	6.88	5.88	4.48	3.55
46	Gabon	4.42	5.39	5.46	4.21	3.55
47	Zimbabwe	7.22	6.98	4.87	3.67	3.55
48	Kenya	7.63	7.88	6.13	4.78	3.40
49	Namibia	6.21	6.54	5.32	3.56	3.35
50	Kiribati	6.55	5.03	4.64	3.80	3.33
51	Papua New Guinea	6.02	6.07	5.18	4.22	3.27
52	Tonga	6.89	5.43	4.64	4.18	3.27
53	Timor-Leste	6.32	5.19	5.81	5.71	3.25
54	Tajikistan	6.55	6.60	5.34	3.44	3.24
55	Tuvalu	4.78	3.50	3.91	3.63	3.19
56	Kazakhstan	4.53	3.39	2.72	2.22	3.13
57	Lesotho	5.82	5.90	4.76	3.44	3.05
58	Kyrgyzstan	5.38	4.66	3.63	2.50	3.00
59	Egypt	6.79	5.80	4.48	3.15	2.96
60	Algeria	7.50	7.37	4.56	2.56	2.94
61	Israel	3.87	3.55	2.82	2.84	2.90
62	Mongolia	6.83	7.13	4.23	2.03	2.90
63	Uzbekistan	6.61	5.89	4.07	2.36	2.90
64	Eswatini	6.75	6.75	5.25	3.68	2.89
65	Jordan	7.67	7.89	5.48	3.78	2.87
66	Haiti	6.21	5.69	5.48	3.83	2.87
67	Djibouti	6.83	6.77	5.98	3.99	2.85
68	Botswana	6.63	6.58	4.49	3.08	2.84
69	Syria	7.49	7.47	5.38	3.81	2.80
70	Philippines	7.15	5.60	4.35	3.49	2.78
71	Micronesia	6.69	6.68	4.96	3.60	2.75
72	Turkmenistan	6.59	5.90	4.24	2.66	2.70
73	Oman	7.25	7.75	6.61	3.05	2.69
74	Bolivia	6.36	5.79	4.89	3.56	2.65
75	Guam	5.91	3.91	3.05	2.76	2.59
76	Lao	6.29	6.29	6.08	3.67	2.54
77	Libya	7.37	7.96	4.97	2.77	2.51
78	Paraguay	6.50	5.21	4.55	3.04	2.50
79	Fiji	6.46	4.10	3.41	2.89	2.50
80	Guatemala	6.96	6.41	5.48	3.97	2.48
81	Saudi Arabia	7.63	7.37	5.83	3.24	2.47
82	Guyana	6.37	4.50	3.07	2.84	2.42
83	South Africa	6.16	5.19	3.72	2.51	2.40
84	Honduras	7.46	6.86	5.29	3.55	2.39
85	Cambodia	6.25	4.10	5.64	3.24	2.38
86	Suriname	6.61	4.73	3.27	2.75	2.37
87	Morocco	7.04	6.27	4.02	2.57	2.35
88	Nicaragua	7.16	6.50	4.60	2.77	2.35
89	Panama	5.84	4.42	3.10	2.67	2.34
90	Dominican Republic	7.56	5.24	3.41	2.61	2.30
91	Faroe Islands	NA	2.90	2.80	2.60	2.30
92	World	4.70	4.08	3.31	2.60	2.30
93	Seychelles	NA	NA	NA	2.20	2.29
94	Venezuela, RB	6.36	4.69	3.45	2.63	2.23
95	Peru	6.94	5.71	3.91	2.69	2.22
96	Indonesia	5.55	5.04	3.10	2.43	2.19
97	Myanmar	5.98	5.29	3.54	2.55	2.17
98	Kuwait	7.16	6.09	3.32	2.66	2.14
99	Tunisia	6.94	6.03	3.47	1.98	2.11
100	Lebanon	5.82	4.56	3.30	2.20	2.10
101	Nepal	6.03	5.75	5.21	3.14	2.06
102	Ecuador	6.72	5.43	3.74	2.80	2.05
103	India	5.92	5.20	4.05	2.96	2.05
104	New Caledonia	6.28	3.70	3.18	2.20	2.04
105	Virgin Islands	5.45	3.63	2.99	2.24	2.03
106	Grenada	6.74	4.02	3.49	2.34	2.02
107	Greenland	NA	2.35	2.44	2.38	2.02
108	Bangladesh	6.78	6.74	4.48	2.81	2.00
109	Sri Lanka	5.47	3.79	2.52	2.28	2.00
110	Belize	6.50	6.28	4.70	3.13	2.00
111	Georgia	2.94	2.53	2.31	1.61	1.97
112	Vietnam	6.28	5.64	3.60	1.96	1.96
113	Turkiye	6.38	5.07	3.13	2.22	1.92
114	Argentina	3.08	3.30	3.03	2.43	1.91
115	Cabo Verde	6.89	6.77	5.39	2.93	1.91
116	Mexico	6.76	5.79	3.45	2.50	1.91
117	Gibraltar	3.01	2.62	2.44	1.70	1.86
118	Bahrain	7.15	5.62	3.76	2.62	1.83
119	France	2.85	2.09	1.77	1.94	1.83
120	El Salvador	6.63	5.68	3.95	2.46	1.82
121	Malaysia	6.41	4.52	3.37	2.33	1.82
122	North Korea	3.57	3.05	2.35	1.96	1.82
123	Qatar	6.65	6.10	4.18	2.58	1.82
124	St. Vincent & the Grenadines	7.29	4.98	2.83	2.07	1.81
125	Brunei Darussalam	6.84	4.99	3.29	2.02	1.80
126	Moldova	3.33	2.53	2.39	1.53	1.77
127	Montenegro	3.50	2.40	1.94	1.69	1.75
128	Colombia	6.74	4.40	3.08	2.26	1.74
129	Iceland	4.29	2.65	2.30	2.05	1.72
130	Maldives	6.80	7.19	6.09	2.24	1.71
131	Czechia	2.09	2.43	1.90	1.29	1.71
132	Iran	7.30	6.01	4.86	1.78	1.71
133	French Polynesia	5.89	4.71	3.44	2.19	1.71
134	Azerbaijan	5.88	4.18	2.74	2.00	1.70
135	Denmark	2.57	1.92	1.67	1.80	1.67
136	Sweden	2.17	1.77	2.13	1.77	1.66
137	Brazil	6.06	4.42	2.91	1.97	1.65
138	U.S.	3.65	1.77	2.08	2.06	1.64
139	Trinidad and Tobago	5.35	3.24	2.38	1.68	1.63
140	Ireland	3.78	3.37	2.11	1.86	1.63
141	Barbados	4.33	2.39	1.74	1.79	1.63
142	New Zealand	4.24	2.33	2.18	1.97	1.61
143	Curacao	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.60
144	Romania	2.34	2.59	1.83	1.40	1.60
145	Slovenia	2.19	2.18	1.46	1.26	1.60
146	Australia	3.45	2.15	1.90	1.81	1.58
147	Estonia	1.98	2.04	2.05	1.52	1.58
148	Armenia	4.79	2.96	2.71	1.54	1.58
149	Slovak Republic	3.04	2.55	2.09	1.27	1.57
150	Antigua and Barbuda	4.60	2.77	2.25	1.83	1.57
151	Isle of Man	2.88	2.05	1.92	1.85	1.57
152	Bulgaria	2.31	2.23	1.82	1.37	1.56
153	United Kingdom	2.69	1.81	1.83	1.76	1.56
154	Hungary	2.02	2.35	1.87	1.31	1.56
155	Costa Rica	6.71	3.80	3.21	2.04	1.56
156	Belgium	2.54	1.74	1.62	1.76	1.55
157	Latvia	1.94	1.96	2.02	1.39	1.55
158	Netherlands	3.12	1.66	1.62	1.71	1.55
159	Chile	4.70	3.18	2.58	1.80	1.54
160	Germany	2.37	1.45	1.45	1.34	1.53
161	Kosovo	6.36	5.25	3.65	2.61	1.53
162	Russia	2.52	1.98	1.89	1.29	1.51
163	Cuba	4.13	2.85	1.80	1.47	1.50
164	Croatia	2.23	1.96	1.63	1.50	1.48
165	Lithuania	2.56	2.18	2.03	1.29	1.48
166	Norway	2.85	1.98	1.93	1.84	1.48
167	Serbia	NA	NA	NA	1.45	1.48
168	Uruguay	2.83	3.02	2.43	2.10	1.48
169	U.A.E	6.72	6.26	4.54	2.20	1.46
170	Switzerland	2.44	1.61	1.58	1.42	1.46
171	Austria	2.69	1.83	1.46	1.41	1.44
172	Mauritius	6.17	3.20	2.32	1.88	1.44
173	Bhutan	6.70	6.62	5.60	2.80	1.43
174	St. Lucia	6.97	5.46	3.40	1.68	1.41
175	Albania	6.46	4.52	2.90	1.80	1.40
176	Canada	3.81	1.82	1.83	1.57	1.40
177	Portugal	3.16	2.75	1.56	1.41	1.40
178	Bahamas	4.82	3.26	2.53	2.05	1.39
179	Belarus	2.67	2.17	1.91	1.25	1.38
180	Poland	2.98	2.27	2.06	1.24	1.38
181	Finland	2.72	1.68	1.78	1.80	1.37
182	Luxembourg	2.29	1.55	1.60	1.63	1.37
183	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3.91	2.36	1.79	1.20	1.36
184	Jamaica	5.58	4.50	2.85	2.06	1.36
185	Thailand	6.25	4.40	2.09	1.59	1.34
186	Greece	2.23	2.33	1.39	1.34	1.34
187	Japan	2.00	1.91	1.54	1.26	1.34
188	Cyprus	3.51	2.11	2.41	1.48	1.33
189	Aruba	4.82	2.51	2.30	1.78	1.33
190	Bermuda	NA	NA	NA	1.76	1.30
191	North Macedonia	3.97	2.59	2.19	1.50	1.30
192	China	4.45	3.57	2.51	1.62	1.28
193	Italy	2.40	2.17	1.33	1.34	1.24
194	Spain	2.86	2.77	1.36	1.33	1.23
195	Ukraine	2.24	2.02	1.85	1.21	1.22
196	Malta	3.62	2.27	2.02	1.38	1.13
197	Singapore	5.76	2.07	1.83	1.26	1.10
198	Macao SAR, China	4.93	1.60	1.74	0.83	1.07
199	British Virgin Islands	5.16	3.36	1.59	1.34	0.98
200	Puerto Rico	4.80	2.77	2.38	1.77	0.90
201	Hong Kong	5.07	2.67	1.27	0.96	0.87
202	South Korea	5.95	3.43	1.57	1.09	0.84

Why are Fertility Rates Falling All Over The World?

Declining fertility rates are a consequence of a confluence of many related factors, including (but not limited to):

Better access to contraception
Improving opportunities for women outside of childbearing
Robust healthcare that lowers mortality rates of children

The next generation will have much to grapple with. One must think about all the issues surrounding population decline – pensions, lower consumer demand, and lower housing demand, just to name a few. Of course, this is all predicated on natural declines in population – and assumes no unnatural declines in populations.

See more Chart of the Day posts.

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RWR original article syndication source.

Source: Chart of the Day: The Coming Population Bomb Implosion

Category: Culture, Policy, RWR, Chart of the Day, Demographics, Fertility Rates, population, Population Bomb Implosion